The domestic box office is set to achieve its largest Thanksgiving revenue since the pandemic, driven by a Polynesian princess, two witches, and a gladiator on a quest for vengeance.
Disney’s “Moana 2” is poised to debut in theaters this Wednesday, with projections estimating a box office haul of $120 million to $150 million across the U.S. and Canada by Sunday. Joining the lineup are Universal’s “Wicked” and Paramount’s “Gladiator II,” both entering their second week of domestic screenings.
Experts in box-office trends anticipate that the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, spanning from Wednesday to Sunday, is set to surpass $200 million in ticket sales. There’s even potential for it to rank as the second or third highest Thanksgiving period in the history of cinema.
“The combination of ‘Moana 2,’ ‘Wicked,’ and ‘Gladiator II’ is a genuine game-changer for movie theaters this Thanksgiving,” stated Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.
“In the past, the holiday consistently showcased significant releases that catered to all audiences, but replicating that success has proven challenging for the industry in the post-pandemic landscape,” he stated. This year stands out with a remarkable trio of major releases poised to drive some of the most impressive box office results the holiday season has ever experienced.
Since 2019, the Thanksgiving holiday haul has not exceeded $200 million, as reported by Comscore data. The record for the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend belongs to 2018, featuring a lineup that includes “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II,” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” collectively raking in an impressive $315 million at the box office. The holiday period’s second-highest total was an impressive $294.2 million achieved during the same five-day stretch in 2013.
“Thanksgiving stands out as a pivotal holiday season for movie theaters, establishing the momentum for the year-end box office rush,” stated Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at Comscore. The performance in the closing weeks of the year will shape the overall box office revenue and influence how the industry views the year—whether it’s celebrated as a success or marked as a setback.
Disney is in need of another animation triumph.
Once a dominant force at the Thanksgiving box office with beloved titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it has recently struggled to meet expectations with its latest offerings.
In 2016, “Moana” debuted during the Thanksgiving holiday, raking in an impressive $82.1 million. The next year, “Coco” raked in an impressive $72.9 million during its opening weekend, while in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” amassed a remarkable $84.8 million during its five-day debut. In late 2019, right before the pandemic hit, “Frozen II” made a remarkable $125 million during the Thanksgiving holiday, following a strong opening the previous week that exceeded $130 million.
During the pandemic, “Encanto” made a remarkable impact, racking up $40.6 million in 2021. “Strange World” underperformed, raking in only $18.9 million over the holiday season in 2022, while “Wish” managed a modest $31.6 million in 2023. In 2020, there was no Disney animated film released during the Thanksgiving holiday.
“Moana 2” is poised to surpass these post-pandemic releases. The sequel hits theaters one year after its predecessor was crowned the most-streamed film for kids and families. Audiences flocked in large numbers to see Disney and Pixar’s “Inside Out 2” this summer. “Inside Out 2” debuted with an impressive $154.2 million in domestic earnings and surpassed the $1 billion mark worldwide throughout its entire run.
